Bookworm: Adapt – Why Success Always Starts with Failure

If we are afraid to fail or adapt, we will never achieve anything, writes economist Tim Harford.

What’s this book about?

The author (economist and journalist Tim Harford OBE) puts forward a thesis of adaptation: that because the systems that govern everything we encounter are extremely complex, we must be able to think in a way that keeps us adaptable.

We must be unafraid to fail because in experimentation and in failure lie the answers to problems so complex that getting them right first time would be all but impossible.

Sounds simple. Just keep failing and you’ll succeed in the end.

Yes and no. The ‘failure’ in the book’s title is a little misleading. Though Harford does advise experimenting and prescribe failure as being inherently valuable, this is an economics book, not a motivational speech.

Rather than wasting money on one idea that attempts to solve a huge problem in one sweeping motion, we would be better served by localising our efforts and trying various ways to address smaller problems with lower stakes.

How do we encourage good failure then?

Harford cites Google’s famous policy of encouraging employees to spend 20% of their work hours pursuing projects that they are passionate about.

He also thinks that offering lots of prize money is a good place to start. Putting up cash as a way of encouraging competition between the world’s smartest thinkers will drive creativity, he says, using as his example the Ansari X Prize, a $10 million pot for the first group to get a private aircraft into space.

Lots of money. Why didn’t I think of that?

Well. With every recommendation comes a caveat. A great example of the way in which this kind of scheme can backfire is a discovery by researchers in India, who offered cash to learner drivers if they passed their test.

When these learners successfully passed their tests, researchers subjected them to a separate one, presided over by different examiners. All of a sudden, the learners weren’t so good at driving after all. This was because they had simply bribed the examiners in charge of the first test.

Economics. It’s a tricky old business.

Exactly right. Just implementing a rule or condition in order to save money or address a societal problem such as climate change isn’t necessarily sufficient. In fact, we often make life harder or more expensive for ourselves by implementing these rules in the first place. Loopholes can be found, and unintended consequences can arise.

A Harford example is the ‘Merton Rule’, which stipulated that new buildings produce at least 10% of the power they used. The solution for most business owners was simple: they would put in fossil fuel energy generators. The problem was that they burped out even more CO2, making the problem worse than it was in the first place.

Oh dear. It sounds difficult to do anything right.

That’s exactly what Harford is saying. But the book wouldn’t have become a bestseller if that was all he was saying. His point is that instead of thinking rigidly and simplistically, we need to look at the market and create solutions that – often through a fraught process of trial and error – actually suit the people and businesses that are going to implement them.

You mean people need to have things made easy for them?

In a way, yes. Harford recommends simplicity and transparency as a way of moving forward. If a rule is too complex, unclear, or badly planned, people can achieve their goal by simply bypassing it. The policy needs to be market-based and effective – for example, a carbon tax – in order for the desired end result to be achieved.

What can I take and use from this?

When you set out to achieve something, even if it is risky, make sure that if the experiment doesn’t go according to plan, you can survive it. And, whenever you ‘fail’, don’t say, “I am a failure”; say, “I have made a mistake”.

If you are afraid to fail, you will never achieve anything. Try, then, to assume that some of your ventures are inevitably not going to go as you had planned. As you go along, seek feedback and learn from the mistakes you will inevitably make.

And try not just to look for success – look for the failures that are everywhere so that you are not tricked into thinking that the world is only comprised of successes.

What am I most likely to say after reading this book?

 “We’re not doomed. We just need to think smartly.”

What am I least likely to say after reading this book?

 “Everything will be all right if we keep on doing what we’re doing.”