Annie Duke outlines 10 methods for better decision-making.
Yes, Annie Duke is a professional and extremely successful poker player. She uses her expertise at the tables to inform her writing and teaching on cognitive-behaviour and decision science.
Of sorts, yes! How to Decide reveals the secrets of successful decision-making on everything from what to watch on Netflix to whether to move continents – and they could be applied to card games, too.
First, let’s look at the main ways in which we fall foul to bad decisions. Typically, we judge the success of a past decision on how well it turned out in the end. This is known as ‘resulting’ and can lead to problems.
While it seems logical, ‘resulting’ belies any potential for luck (good or bad) having played a part in the outcome. By only looking at the result of a decision, and not the factors that led up to the decision, we can take credit for mere good fortune, or self-flagellate for something that wasn’t our fault.
Equally dangerously, we could treat a bad decision as good, just because the outcome was acceptable – such as running a red light without crashing into anyone. (Hint: It was still a bad decision.)
It is if we use it correctly, to learn for the future. However, Duke describes another pitfall called “hindsight bias”, which is where we insert knowledge gained after a decision into our retelling of the events before the decision was made.
Also known as ‘creeping determinism’, the outcome of this mental trap is that we start to believe that there was only ever one possible outcome, and we were smart enough to know it in advance. This, of course, is untrue and is thin ice for our next decision.
Duke explains 10 methods for better decision-making.
1. Knowledge tracking. List out everything you know about a situation before you make a
decision, and after you’ve taken a punt, list out all that you learn. Compare your lists and identify what you missed while considering your options, and what actually changed as a direct result of your decision. This should guide what to pay attention to next time.
2. Counterfactual thinking. Scientists like to compare multiple cases in order to find answers. In life, though, we are usually facing decisions that feel sporadic and unique to us. We can make our process more scientific by finding analogous examples, such as choices we’ve made in the past, or those made by friends and colleagues, and looking for clues about the best course of action.
3. Break decisions into six parts: Identify the potential outcomes of a decision, pick one and look at its upsides and downsides, assess the likelihood of this outcome coming true, compare the weighted upsides with the weighted downsides, repeat for all the potential outcomes, and then identify which outcome has the most positive potential.
4. Use precise language when asking for help: Acting as if you are certain about your plans will put people off from offering support or advice. While it might be tempting to describe an outcome as “pretty likely”, this phrase is open to wild misinterpretation. Some might say it suggests a 40% chance, others 95%. So use numbers, be clear and honest, and let others know that you are open to their input.
5. Set up a shock test: Create a set of constraints between which your desired outcome must land. For example, if you’re launching a new product, establish the lowest number you can afford to sell, and the maximum number you can physically create. The outcome of your decision for how to launch this product must land between the two numbers. Any decision that creates an outcome outside of these numbers is a ‘shock’ and is to be avoided.
6. Perception tracking: As humans, we are blinkered by our own perceptions, beliefs and experiences continuously. Truly rational decisions require us to step outside of ourselves, and see our options as others do. Think about what someone else would do in your shoes, consider what someone very different to you would say about it, and try to find the truth among the beliefs.
7. Only spend time on decisions that will make an impact in one year’s time: These tips and tricks are worth bothering with if you’re choosing who to marry, what job to take, or where to live. Don’t agonise over inconsequential questions such as what to wear, eat or watch. Instead, treat these decisions as mini experiments, or a practice ground. Limit your options and make quick decisions, but do keep a track of the outcomes for future reference.
8. Mental contrasting: Somewhat counter to those who claim that ‘manifesting’ is key to success, Duke cites a study where people who pictured failure (as opposed to success) were more likely to reach their end goal. It seems the momentary discomfort of imagining catastrophe is enough to keep us on track.
9. Mental time travel: Cast your mind forward a few months, and imagine a decision you’ve made is in progress. Ask yourself, what is making this work? What is endangering success? This ‘pre-mortem’ can help create the conditions for a positive outcome, and shed light on the hurdles you’ll need to jump.
10. Seek honest advice: This is harder than it sounds when so many of our friends or peers are more concerned with telling us what we want to hear than the truth. To fix it, keep your own opinions quiet until they’ve shared theirs. If you’re a boss, consider asking for advice anonymously so that people feel they can be honest (but be careful what you wish for!).
“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.” (Phil Hellmuth, American professional poker player)
“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.” (Stu Ungar, American professional poker player)